Top technical analyst Ralph Acampora sees a ‘vacuum rally’ and a bear market for stocks

Investing

The market will probably rally, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the bottom is in, top technical analyst Ralph Acampora told CNBC on Friday.

In fact, right now he sees a bear market for stocks.

The market began its wild week with a massive sell-off on Monday that saw the S&P 500 enter bear market territory. It then had a massive rally midweek, and on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 closed slightly down. For the week, the major averages all rose at least 2.75 percent.

“The rally continues here. That’s the good news,” said Acampora, director of technical research at Altaira Capital Partners.

However, he sees the ceiling for the Dow at 24,400 to 25,000.

“The bad news is that when we get up there we’re going to run into a little overhead supply. I think it’s premature to say we have seen the final low,” he said on “Closing Bell.”

Acampora, known as the “godfather of technical analysis,” described the recent upswing in stocks as a snapback or “vacuum rally” after the Dow became extremely oversold on Wednesday. He explained his “vacuum” theory in a tweet earlier Friday, pointing to the space left below that Dow ceiling.

Despite ending the week higher, equities are still on track for their worst December performance since 1931. The S&P 500 was down 9.9 percent for the month, while the Dow has lost 9.7 percent.

Acampora said the best that could happen is that the Dow retests its recent lows, going back down below 22,000.

“If we could do that successfully then I think we’ve seen the final bottom, but I don’t have that indication yet.”

In fact, right now he’s put himself in the bear camp, noting that the Dow Theory flashed a bear signal several weeks ago. The Dow Theory uses the transportation and industrial indexes to gauge the strength and weakness of market moves.

“Unless I see certain things develop, I’d say you have a rally and a bear market right now.”

— CNBC’s Fred Imbert contributed to this report.


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